Over 14 million people could die from US foreign aid cuts: study
A new study warns that more than 14 million people—many of them young children—could die as a result of dramatic reductions in US foreign aid, particularly under the administration of President Donald Trump.
Published in the Lancet, the research comes as global leaders gather in Spain this week for a United Nations conference aimed at revitalizing the struggling aid sector.
The US Agency for International Development (USAID) previously contributed over 40% of the world’s humanitarian aid, but that support has drastically declined since Trump returned to office in January. Just weeks into his presidency, Trump’s top advisor, billionaire Elon Musk, reportedly declared that the agency had been put "through the woodchipper."
According to Davide Rasella, co-author of the study and a researcher at the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), the consequences of these funding cuts could be catastrophic. 'For many low- and middle-income countries, the impact would be on par with a global pandemic or a large-scale war,' Rasella said.
Analyzing data from 133 countries between 2001 and 2021, researchers concluded that USAID’s assistance had helped prevent 91 million deaths in developing nations over two decades.
Using statistical models, the team projected the effects of an 83% cut to USAID’s budget—an amount announced by the US government earlier this year. Their analysis indicated that such a reduction could result in more than 14 million preventable deaths by 2030. This figure includes over 4.5 million children under the age of five, averaging roughly 700,000 child deaths annually.
For perspective, World War I caused an estimated 10 million military deaths.
The study found that USAID-backed programs were associated with a 15% overall reduction in mortality rates, while child mortality rates fell by 32% in countries receiving aid. The funding was particularly effective in combating preventable diseases: HIV/AIDS-related deaths were 65% lower in heavily funded countries, while fatalities from malaria and neglected tropical diseases were reduced by about 50%.
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