Nepal's political turmoil adds to India's woes in South Asia

Nepal has become the latest South Asian country to descend into turmoil, joining Sri Lanka and Bangladesh in recent years where mass protests have forced leaders from office.

On Tuesday, Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli stepped down after days of violent anti-government demonstrations spiraled out of control. The unrest, sparked by a controversial ban on social media platforms, left more than 20 people dead in clashes with security forces.
The government has imposed a nationwide curfew, and the army has been deployed to restore order after furious crowds stormed parliament and torched the homes of senior politicians. Many Nepalis say the scenes are a chilling reminder of the chaos that engulfed Sri Lanka in 2022 and Bangladesh just last year.
For India, the crisis comes at a particularly sensitive moment. Nepal shares a 1,750-km open border with five Indian states, and millions of people cross freely every year for trade, work, or family ties. With an estimated 3.5 million Nepalis living or working in India—and tens of thousands of Nepali Gurkha soldiers serving in the Indian army—the instability carries immediate consequences for Delhi.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed grief over the loss of life, calling the violence “heart-rending.” In a post on X, he appealed to the people of Nepal to “support peace,” emphasizing that the country’s “stability, peace and prosperity” are vital. Modi also convened an emergency security meeting with his top ministers, reflecting Delhi’s unease about the crisis erupting just across its northern frontier.
Analysts note that Oli’s sudden resignation—just a week before a scheduled trip to Delhi—caught India off guard, much like the unexpected collapse of Sri Lanka’s leadership two years ago. The unrest has left policymakers in Delhi scrambling to assess how the power vacuum in Kathmandu might reshape the region’s fragile political balance.
The crisis also highlights Nepal’s heavy dependence on India. Kathmandu relies on Indian imports of fuel, food, and essential goods, with annual bilateral trade reaching nearly $8.5 billion. Beyond economics, cultural and religious ties run deep: Nepal, a Hindu-majority nation, is home to sacred temples like Muktinath, which attract thousands of Indian pilgrims every year.
For Delhi, the concern is not only about immediate security but also about the long-term question of regional stability. With three of its closest neighbors—Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and now Nepal—experiencing mass uprisings within a short span, India finds itself confronting a volatile South Asian neighborhood where even its strongest historic ties are being tested.