India's 'new normal' doctrine destabilises nuclear South Asia: CISS
An Islamabad-based security think tank has warned that India’s evolving 'new normal' military doctrine is undermining strategic stability in nuclear-armed South Asia, arguing it risks provoking dangerous escalation during any future confrontation between New Delhi and Islamabad.
The Centre for International Strategic Studies (CISS) issued the assessment during a policy dialogue with Australian officials and academics, saying India’s assertive posture seeks to legitimise unilateral military action under the banner of counterterrorism. According to participants, the doctrine is designed to 'normalise escalatory behaviour,' lowering the threshold for limited conflict in a region where crisis missteps could rapidly spiral into a larger war.
CISS analysts noted that India has increasingly signalled a willingness to respond to alleged cross-border attacks using conventional force, pointing to its reaffirmation of the doctrine this year and recent operations modelled on its 2019 cross-line strike. Pakistan-based experts argue this shift challenges the delicate regional equilibrium built on mutual nuclear deterrence, as India appears more inclined to disregard Pakistan’s nuclear red lines.
The think tank warned that formalising rapid retaliatory military options in a nuclearised environment heightens the chances of miscalculation. Pakistani scholars at the event criticised India’s tendency to blame Pakistan for every violent incident inside its borders, despite facing several internal insurgencies. They argued that using such narratives to justify pre-emptive or punitive strikes undermines crisis stability and increases the likelihood of an uncontrolled escalation.
CISS representatives said Pakistan’s own doctrine of Full Spectrum Deterrence continues to serve as a stabilising force. They claimed Islamabad remains prepared to respond to any Indian military action with a calibrated 'Quid Pro Quo Plus' strategy, as seen during the flare-up between the two countries in May 2025.
The think tank also questioned Western defence cooperation with India, especially US and European support for India’s military modernisation.
According to its assessment, much of India’s enhanced military capability is oriented not toward countering China—as often assumed in Western capitals—but toward maintaining coercive leverage over Pakistan.
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